Tesla Is Burning Cash on AI — Should You Still Lease One?
Tesla's margins are shrinking as it pours money into AI and FSD. Here's what that corporate turbulence means if you're eyeing a Tesla on a novated lease in 2026.
Tesla just posted over $US100 billion in annual revenue — and somehow still managed to disappoint investors. According to The Driven, margins are being crunched by heavy investment in AI, Full Self-Driving (FSD), and robotics. Elon Musk hasn't ruled out a merger with SpaceX either — which is the kind of corporate curveball that makes finance journalists nervous.
For most Australians, none of that boardroom drama matters day-to-day. But if you're a PAYG employee considering a Tesla on a novated lease, it's worth asking a straightforward question: does Tesla's financial turbulence change the calculus for you?
What this means for novated lease customers
The short answer is: probably less than the headlines suggest — but not zero.
Resale value is the real watch item. Novated leases are structured around a residual value — what the car is estimated to be worth at the end of your lease term. Tesla has a history of aggressive price cuts, and ongoing corporate uncertainty (AI spend, potential SpaceX merger, leadership distraction) adds a layer of unpredictability to where Tesla resale values land in three to five years. That's not unique to Tesla — any rapidly evolving EV brand carries this risk — but it's worth factoring in.
The FBT exemption still applies. As things stand, eligible EVs under the LCT threshold — including many Tesla models — remain exempt from Fringe Benefits Tax under current Australian law. That exemption is what makes novated leasing on an EV genuinely compelling for PAYG employees. Tesla's internal strategy doesn't change that. What matters is the vehicle price, your income, and the structure of your lease — not what Musk is spending on robots.
Corporate volatility ≠ product failure. Tesla still sells and services vehicles in Australia. Warranty obligations remain. The risk of a SpaceX merger affecting your Model Y's next service is, realistically, negligible. Treat the corporate noise as background information, not a dealbreaker.
Common questions
Does Tesla's falling profit margin affect my novated lease deal?
Not directly. Your lease terms are locked in at signing. The indirect risk is around residual values — if Tesla cuts prices aggressively again, your car may be worth less at lease end than projected, which affects your balloon payment or trade-in position.
Is a Tesla still FBT-exempt on a novated lease in 2026?
Eligible zero-emission vehicles under the luxury car tax threshold remain FBT-exempt under current Australian law. Check that your specific Tesla model and variant qualifies before signing — thresholds and model pricing can shift.
What happens to my lease if Tesla restructures or merges with SpaceX?
Your novated lease is an agreement between you, your employer, and your finance provider — not Tesla. A Tesla corporate restructure wouldn't void or alter your lease. Vehicle warranty obligations would transfer to any successor entity under Australian consumer law.
Should I choose a different EV brand to reduce corporate risk?
That's a legitimate consideration. Brands like BYD, Hyundai, and Kia also offer FBT-exempt EVs and have different risk profiles. The best choice depends on the vehicle, the residual value estimate, and your personal preferences — not just corporate headlines.
How does millarX approach Tesla novated leases given this uncertainty?
We run the numbers honestly, including realistic residual value assumptions. We're not here to push any one brand — we're here to make sure the lease structure actually makes sense for your situation.